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Polling Jitters January 1, 2008

Posted by gordonwatts in politics.

I was just reading about the recent newspaper poll results in Iowa. Wow, that must be causing lots of jitters right now – especially in the Clinton camp (and perhaps the Edwards camp as well).

I remember at the very end of the Top quark discovery (and to a lesser extent the evidence for single top) walking on pins and needles. We were so close to the end that  nothing could be done to change the analysis. On the other hand, there could always be something wrong. And it was such a big result you were hoping that it wouldn’t be wrong. So each email that would arrive with the subject heading “Comments on Paper” would cause butterfly’s in the stomach.

I imagine a poll like this must cause problems. Though I have to say I would have thought the various campaigns would do their own internal polling and so would know about what was going on….

At any rate, this and the previous Science 2008 post I did got me to thinking who I’d like to win the primaries. I think I come down as a Clinton supporter – though I could live with any of the top three. I wish we could have seen more of Richardson; I think he might have been a very interesting possibility if he was a contender. Edwards makes me a bit nervous when it comes to dealing with business. For example, NAFTA (scrap it?, as most of his supporters seem to think -at least those willing to vote online). My problem with Obama is his inexperience – looking over his record in the Senate it seems like he has tried to avoid doing anything controversial in order to make him self free of baggage when it came to this run. I give much more respect to people that try — for example, McCain. My worries about Clinton are most that there are too many special interest connections. However, she is surrounded by an infrastructure of political insiders and is paralleled to none (read: experience!!!). Even though elections are won on domestic issues, I think the foreign ones are more important – and I think she will do better there than almost anyone else (as I said, I wish Richardson was more of a contender).

On the republican side, I like McCain. Though, not for what he is now, but what he used to be and what he represented. If he were to win the nomination he would have to move back towards the center — back towrards the McCain we were used to. My ideal presidential debate would be a McCain v. Clinton. Actually, it wouldn’t – no debate is: by the time they are doing the final debates, unless one is very far behind, there is just no chance anyone will say anything other than a carefully vetted sentence. Perhaps the ideal debate would be if McCain and Clinton both lost, but then had a runners-up debate! Then I might learn something.

Actually – what would be cool is a Charlie Rose like conversation, but with someone like Bill Clinton and, say, McCain. I’d pay to download that podcast.

So, I’m rambling at this point — are there any good podcasts out there that discus international issues? I’d love to get some to listen to for my daily commute. Like a “Foreign Policy” magazine podcast. 🙂

At any rate, back to the presidential election. In the end, it almost won’t matter who the Republicans put up. For example, if it is Huckabee I’ll just vote democratic. That will be easy, and depressing. Romney – almost certainly the same situation. McCain is one of the few people that would make me think twice – though some of his current positions make me quite nervous. I’ll wait until the Republican’s decide before I decide.



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